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Conspiracy? Swine flu in 2009 was much more serious. Why people pay so much attention to this corona pneumonia


It seems that the swine flu in 2009 was much more serious. Why do people pay so much attention to this corona pneumonia outbreak?


Why is Chinese coronavirus so important? 

The United States experienced a swine flu pandemic in 2009-2010, with a much higher rate of infections and deaths, but no matter what happens in China, it is always portrayed as a worse situation.


Let's start with the severity of swine flu in 2009: according to the most conservative estimates, this flu caused about 150,000 deaths.


However, it is a variation of ordinary flu, and the lethal rate is only a little higher than usual (less than 0.03%).


0.03%, this fatality rate made the 2009 swine flu one of the least dangerous pandemics in the past 200 years.


In fact, the flu causes tens of thousands of deaths each year, but let us not forget that it also affects a considerable part of the world's population (from 5% to greater than 30%). The mortality rate of these epidemics has been less than 0.2%, and the mortality rate of common seasonal influenza is about 0.1%.


With one exception: the Spanish flu of 1918, it killed more people than those who died in the First World War, with a fatality rate of about 2% to 3%.


Now we are facing a new virus whose innate immunity to this virus is lower than that of influenza (remember, in the Americas, what happened to people with weak innate immunity to the new virus?). The toxicity of Spanish flu is similar to that of influenza, and the lethality rate of New Coronavirus is similar to that of Spanish flu. In other words, the toxicity of the new virus is the same as that of ordinary flu, but the lethality is 30 times higher.



If you don’t value it, you might be one of those who like this Russian game.

This isn’t because it happened in “China”. Unless you think they blocked the city just because it’s fun, or you think the Chinese flooding into major hospitals is just overreacting.

To put it more bluntly, China is struggling with what may be the worst epidemic since its founding, but you ask why it is important.
First, there have been 4,600 reported cases in China (as of January 28, 2020). This is the reported number. Some people in the epidemic area said that the actual number is much larger. A video said it should be 90,000. Although I don’t agree with it, I think it should be much larger than 4600. 

In addition, some videos captured people lying on the ground in public areas, such as aisles or trains. Many videos did not make it clear whether those people fainted or were put aside after death. Those people were covered with tarps.

This is what happened in the past few weeks, and the flu period you mentioned in the question lasted about a year. If 4,600 people are infected in a few weeks, then you can predict that if the virus continues to spread at the current rate, 50,000 people may be infected within a year. If the infection rate increases exponentially, this number is even greater. For comparison, the number of people infected with the H1N1 influenza virus in 2009 was only about 17,000.


Doctors believe that the new coronavirus is spread by droplets, but even those who not only wear protective clothing but also take all other precautions (including doctors) are still infected. It may be spread by air, it may be spread by water, and it may even survive in disinfectants.


The fact is, we really don't know much about this new coronavirus. Apart from controlling symptoms, we don't have any real treatments, and we don't have vaccines.


As for H1N1, we are very familiar with him. It was also the culprit of the Spanish flu in 1918. At that time, doctors could not develop a vaccine in a short enough time to control the spread of influenza, but they did develop a vaccine after the outbreak. Therefore, when the virus made a comeback in 2009, we were ready.


We are not prepared for Wuhan's new coronavirus

We still haven't found a cure for the New Coronavirus in the Middle East. We still have years of work to do in this business (you may remember the outbreak of MERS). We are not sure how it spreads, we do not know how to treat it, and we have no vaccines against it. And it started again in one of the most densely populated countries on the planet.
Wuhan has a population of 11 million. Many people are at risk of infection, and each infection can cause mutations, which makes it more difficult to develop a usable vaccine.

This is why people value it?

What people value is that we have never seen this virus, so we know very little about it. Secondly, at least 5 of the confirmed cases have flown to all parts of the world. They are all healthy young people. Before the first case of death from the virus was reported, these asymptomatic carriers have traveled internationally for 6 to 14 days. No one knows how many people they passed by during this period. No one knows how many people they spread the virus to, and so on. It has a 14-day incubation period, and it is possible to discover it only if the body feels uncomfortable.


Many people do not feel any physical abnormalities, but they have the possibility of causing abnormalities in other people's bodies. We are playing a good show in the United States. What is special about the United States? The for-profit medical system is too expensive, and many people will not go to the hospital until the disease develops very late because they can't afford it, they simply let it go. We also have a culture: people have to go to work even if they are sick, because they have to make money themselves, and the boss asks for it.


The comparison between the swine flu and the Wuhan virus you cited actually points to a huge difference between the United States and China. The epidemic was described as very serious, mostly because they implemented national security measures quickly and decisively. The United States cannot do this, even if the authorities are not completely incompetent.

What you see is the typical public response to a widespread publicity of a new disease, especially when experts predict that the disease may evolve into a pandemic.


However, you have seen this phenomenon in SARS, Ebola, AIDS and current coronaviruses (other coronaviruses have been known for many years). It is likely that all panic will cease within a week or two. Before the next outbreak, no one except the medical staff who researched the problem would care about the virus.

Being infected with SARS is very fatal

SARS kills 11% of infected people, which includes those who are relatively healthy, at least those who are healthy enough to provide medical services to others.


During the normal flu season, 5% -25% of Americans will get flu. 5% of the US population is 16.3 million, 25% is 81 million, and the mortality rate is 0.07% to 0.36%, depending on the estimates used.


The lethal rate of atypical pneumonia is 30 to 150 times that of influenza.

Therefore, if there are as many SARS infections as influenza, the number of deaths will be between 1.8 million and 8.9 million.


We know the flu well, so if a certain strain starts to become more deadly, we can prevent it by vaccinating.


We do not have the SARS vaccine, so if SARS starts to spread among the crowd and escapes all isolation, we will not be able to avoid high mortality.

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